Political Pastry

I am a liberal muffin.
I was mixed up and put together at Cal.
Then I was sent to Alabama to cook.
I am a liberal muffin.

Blog goes the Dynamite

2.0 imo, welcome to my blog.

I'll be adding in a lot of old content from my emails, posts & papers over the next couple of days before moving forward.

My posts will generally revolve around the mathematics behind sports betting and poker, and my (now two year old) project to use statistical & economic models to create an aggregation script to systematically beat sports betting over the long run.

I'll also blog occasionally about my road to grad school, although most of those posts will either be archived (from the application process in Fall '07) or in the distant future - I'll be attending the Stanford GSB in the Fall of 2010.


Also contributing to this blog are two of my good friends, Carson Mobley and Tom Schneider, and I'll let them introduce themselves.

Week 3 Final

Another winning week in the books baby! Man, I love college football season.

Personal picks went 8-3 this week, to make me 22-9 so far on the season. (71%) (One push)

WIN North Carolina +5.5 @ Rutgers

WIN South Florida vs Kansas (-140 on the moneyline)

LOSS Michigan -1 vs Notre Dame

WIN Middle Tennessee State +16.5 @ Kentucky

WIN Vanderbilt -7 vs Rice

WIN San Jose State -6 vs San Diego State

WIN Baylor -3 vs Washington State (Game of the week)

PUSH Central Michigan -3 @ Ohio

WIN Georgia Tech +7 @ Virginia Tech

LOSS Oregon -7.5 @ Purdue

WIN Temple +6.5 @ Buffalo

LOSS Fresno State +2 vs. Wisconsin.

As you can see, most of the games that I won, I won by a large margin, and 2 of my 3 losses were by 1.5 points or less. I was 4 points away from a 10-1 record.

The Algorithm had a return to normalcy after two weeks of absolutely outrageous winning percentages. It lost the two biggest games (Oregon and Michigan) but remember from the previous email that I had set a 6 unit cap on games, so both of those losses were mitigated somewhat.

Overall record on the week was 31-30, which brings the season record to 136-63 (68.3%) (3 units pushed)


Galen

Week 3

Per the last email, here are my personal picks for the week thus far:

South Florida vs Kansas (-140 on the moneyline)

Michigan -1 vs Notre Dame

Middle Tennessee State +16.5 @ Kentucky

Vanderbilt -7 vs Rice

San Jose State -6 vs San Diego State

Baylor +2.5 vs Washington State (Game of the week)

Central Michigan -3 @ Ohio

Georgia Tech +7 @ Virginia Tech

Oregon -7.5 @ Purdue

Temple +6.5 @ Buffalo

Also, I have already been kicked in the ass enough times already for sleeping on the valley, and I am adding:

Fresno State +2 vs Wisconsin

Week 3 Initial

South Florida vs Kansas (-140 on the moneyline)

Michigan -1 vs Notre Dame

Middle Tennessee State +16.5 @ Kentucky

Vanderbilt -7 vs Rice

San Jose State -6 vs San Diego State

Baylor +2.5 vs Washington State (Game of the week)

Central Michigan -3 @ Ohio

Georgia Tech +7 @ Virginia Tech

Oregon -7.5 @ Purdue

Temple +6.5 @ Buffalo

10 so far. I feel best about Baylor, Vandy and Georgia Tech.

Galen

Week 2 Final

What a weekend! I went 7-3 again in my personal picks to bring my season total to 14-6. The betting algorithm went a jaw dropping 55-16. No, that is not a typo. It's 95-33 over the first two weeks. (74%)

The goal of the betting algorithm is to win 55% of games long term while still betting on 30+ games a week rather than my usual 8 to 10. If I can do this, I will be able to wager a much higher proportion of my bank roll every week without compromising risk. I can do a kelly optimal (with clusters, now lol) financial model and can slowly increase bet size as the season goes on, earning a compounded return.

Basically, if I can win 55%, I am going to ship a lot of moneys... right now I'm winning 74%, and I am obviously on a ridiculously positive variance run, and there's absolutely no way in hell I can maintain 60%+ long term, but I feel good about getting into the high 50's. (for example, I'm 7-2 in my 4+ unit bets)

Go Bears,

Galen

Results are as follows:

(PERSONAL PICKS)

WIN Vanderbilt +10 vs South Carolina (Thurs)

LOSS Cincinnati +21 @ Oklahoma

WIN Temple +7 vs Uconn

LOSS Oregon State +16.5 @ Penn State

WIN Southern Miss +17.5 @ Auburn

WIN ASU -14 vs Stanford

LOSS West Virginia -7.5 @ ECU

WIN Georgia Tech +7 @ Boston College (game of the week!)
WIN UL Monroe +13 @ Auburn

WIN Wisconsin -20.5 vs Marshall

Ship it

Ship the moneys.

7-3 personal bets, now 14-6 on the season. (70%)

Algorithm went a jaw dropping 54-16, 77.1% (with the Texas/UTEP game pending. Makes it 94-33 on the season, 74%.

Shit is outrageous. I mean, there's no way that can hold long term, but I am becoming more convinced that it can definitely hit at least 55% on average, which would be phenomenal.

Full writeup to follow tomorrow,

Week 2 Initial

No weekend is ever boring for a sports bettor, although this weekend is gonna try pretty damn hard.

My personal picks, 10 so far this week:

Vanderbilt +10 vs South Carolina (Thurs)

Cincinnati +21 @ Oklahoma

Temple +7 vs Uconn

Oregon State +16.5 @ Penn State

Southern Miss +17.5 @ Auburn

ASU -14 vs Stanford

West Virginia -7.5 @ ECU

Georgia Tech +7 @ Boston College (game of the week!)
UL Monroe +13 @ Arkansas

Wisconsin -20.5 vs Marshall

You can see that despite last week's results I am still on ULM and Oregon State and still fading Stanford and Auburn.

The bets that I feel the best about are Georgia Tech, Temple and ASU. I am pretty sketchy on WVU and Vandy. Then again, last week I got too sketchy on UCLA and convinced myself not to pull the trigger, and they ended up winning outright.

Week 1 Final

Week 1 tally:

Personal Picks: 7-3 (7-3 overall)

Algorithm Picks: 40-17 (40-17 overall)

What a win by UCLA! I had them in my original post, but I didn't end up taking them, unfortunately.

Personal Picks went 7-3:
Oregon State -3 (loss)
Vanderbilt +3.5 (win)
Temple -7 (win)
Rice -3.5 (win)
Ole Miss -8 (win)
Michigan -3 (loss)
ULM +25 (loss)
Cal moneyline (win)
ECU moneyline 2nd half (win)
Missouri -9 (win)

I'm also running my algorithm this season again, although I'm not putting any money on it. In week 1 it went 40-17 (70.2%) in units.

Added ECU +155 moneyline bet for the second half. (In other words, ECU has to win the second half, i.e. lose the game by 7 or less, or win.)

7-3 so far:
Oregon State -3 (loss)
Vanderbilt +3.5 (win)
Temple -7 (win)
Rice -3.5 (win)
Ole Miss -8 (win)
Michigan -3 (loss)
ULM +25 (loss)
Cal moneyline (win)
ECU moneyline 2nd half (win)
Missouri -9 (win)

No thoughts on either game for tomorrow yet,


Great Bears win today,

Galen


Also, algorithm is 38-23 (63%) so far, although I'm not putting any money on it just running it to test it further...

Week 1 Cont

3-1 so far.
Vandy, Temple, and Rice all covered by a ton. OSU outgained Stanford by 200 yards and 11 first downs and still managed to lose. Lots of home chalk tomorrow...

Tomorrow:
Michigan -3
Ole Miss -8
ULM +26

added:
Cal (moneyline)
Missouri -9

I'm off ECU, as they are now down to +8.5, and I wanted them at +10.

UCLA/Tenn

UCLA I struggled a lot with. Tennessee is clearly the better team with both a good offense and a good defense... the question is HOW much better of a team?

Rose bowl, monday night, national TV, first game of the season, packed house, Tennessee traveling all the way across the country. That's got to equate to a 4.5 or 5 point home advantage. Is Tennessee really 12-12.5 points better than UCLA?

UCLA knows how much a win would mean here and neu/chow are gonna pull out all the stops. I see them running a well timed trick play or two early, running the ball fairly well, passing conservatively but well and getting out to like a 14-3 or 14-7 lead, and then Tennessee's talent is too much in the end. and they win like 21-14 or 17-10 or 20-14 or something like that.

I see UCLA covering here like 52-53% of the time... not at all a dynamite pick, but I think it's just too many points and Tennessee wins this game by 7 too often to ignore the huge value moving form 7 to 7.5 had.

Week 1 Initial

1. Oregon State -3
2. Vanderbilt +4
3. Temple -7
4. Rice -3.5
5. Michigan -3
6. Ole Miss -7
7. ECU +10
8. UL Monroe +25.5
9. UCLA +7.5

10. Pat White is the best player ever to play the game


Go Bears,


Galen